Crypto markets are shifting into a new phase of caution as institutional forecasts are revised downward amid weaker liquidity conditions and easing investor demand. The latest revision from Citigroup, published by Reuters, reflects a broader reassessment of digital asset momentum after months of volatility and inconsistent capital inflows.
The downgrade signals that expectations built during the previous market cycle are now being recalibrated against slower adoption trends and uneven regulatory progress.
Price recalibration
Citigroup has cut its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $82,000, down from $112,000, while reducing its Ether target to $2,240 from $3,175. The revision highlights a shift in assumptions around ETF-driven demand, which had previously been a core support mechanism for price expansion.
Bitcoin was last trading at $58,864.27, marking its weakest level since September 2024 and reflecting a sharp pullback from its all-time high of $126,223.18 recorded in October last year. Ether stood at $1,585.63, its lowest level since April 2025.
Citigroup also outlined a bear-case scenario in which Bitcoin could fall to $53,000 and Ether to $1,094 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further and ETF outflows persist.
ETF pressure point
A key driver behind the revised outlook is the sharp reversal in ETF flows, which have historically acted as a structural demand channel for digital assets.
Citigroup noted that it has reduced its assumption for net ETF inflows over the next year to zero, down from $10 billion previously. The bank added that Bitcoin ETF flows alone have declined by approximately $3.3 billion so far this year, underscoring a shift in institutional positioning.
The report also highlighted that both Bitcoin and Ether are now trading below their long-term moving averages, reinforcing a bearish technical backdrop and signaling reduced momentum across major crypto benchmarks.
Market rotation
Beyond ETF dynamics, Citigroup pointed to broader structural pressures shaping sentiment. These include slow progress in U.S. digital asset legislation and concerns over potential selling pressure from digital asset treasury companies.
At the same time, investor capital has increasingly rotated toward artificial intelligence-linked equities, reducing liquidity available for crypto exposure.
The bank expects broader adoption to remain subdued until a new catalyst emerges capable of restoring sustained inflows into the sector.
