Bitcoin could account for up to 10 percent of global trade and 2.5 percent of central bank reserves by 2050, according to a recent report by global asset manager VanEck. The report’s base case model also projects Bitcoin to reach $2.9 million by 2050, growing at a 15 percent CAGR.
VanEck bases its expectation of a 15 percent annualized return on two structural pivots: The Settlement Pivot, where it projects Bitcoin will settle 5-10 percent of global international trade and 5 percent of domestic trade by 2050, and the Reserve Pivot, where as trust in G7 sovereign debt erodes, it models central banks allocating capital to Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal dominance.
Bitcoin could reach $53.4 million in a bull case scenario
The report also outlines two other scenarios, a Bull Case Scenario ($53.4 million) and the Current Baseline (around $88,000).
In a “hyper-bitcoinization” scenario where Bitcoin captures 20 percent of international trade and 10 percent of domestic GDP, the implied value per coin could reach $53.4 million, marking a 29 percent CAGR. This scenario requires Bitcoin to achieve parity with or surpass gold as a primary global reserve asset, constituting nearly 30 percent of world financial assets.
In the current baseline, the valuation model uses the current price of around $88,000 as the baseline for the following projections. Notably, the “Bear Case” target of $130,000 is modestly above current levels, suggesting that even in a stagnation scenario where adoption stalls, the asset has priced in significant utility.
“Bitcoin is not a tactical trade in this framework; it functions as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes,” adds the report.
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Bitcoin to emerge as a strategic monetary hedge
Bitcoin has seen notable price swings in recent trading sessions, even as many analysts continue to hold a constructive long-term outlook. VanEck has outlined a range of forecasts, spanning from conservative estimates to extremely bullish price scenarios.
According to the report, broader adoption by central banks and participants in global trade could enhance Bitcoin’s role as a strategic monetary hedge.
Other analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $170,000 in 2026. Farah Mourad, market analyst at IG, says the outlook isn’t unanimous, but most serious forecasts now sit in the $120,000-$170,000 range. The outlook is based on ETF flows, constrained supply and improved liquidity conditions.
