Bitcoin’s 30-day historical volatility stands at 47 percent as of late December 2025, with a 1-year volatility at 44 percent and implied volatility near 43 percent, dwarfing gold’s 15 percent and equities’ 10 percent. The year saw BTC peak at $126,296 before corrections to $74,420 lows, driven by tariffs, ETF flows, and institutional shifts—Q1 alone featured $109K highs crashing 30 percent to $76.5K. Amid 55 GW data center power surges and Web3 infrastructure booms, volatility persists as BTC trades at $87,498 with $73 billion daily volume.
BTC opened 2025 near $90K, surged to $109K post-Trump inauguration on ETF optimism, then plunged below $90K on Fed delay fears and Bybit hack, bottoming at $76.5K in April. October highs hit $126K before tariff flash crashes, with a year low of $74.4K reflecting macro shocks. The current price of $88,842 reflects a +0.37 percent daily gain from an $87,172 open, with a day range of $86,570-$89,496.
Altcoins amplified swings: XRP +570 percent to $3.39 ATH, Monero +110 percent on privacy demand, Solana -6 percent post-$295 fail. Dominance hit 58 percent, and liquid supply spiked during the $100K+ to $70-85K drops, signaling profit-taking.
Key volatility drivers
Puell Multiple oscillated between 0.85 and 1.25 in Q1, with values greater than 1.2 signaling miner sells at peaks and less than 0.9 indicating accumulation. NUPL fell from 0.60 to below 0.45 as 86 percent to 63 percent of supply went underwater mid-April. The Reserve Risk Ratio dropped to 0.00108 post-correction, showing HODL conviction; Miner Capitulation peaked at 1.56 amid the $98K-$78K drop.
Macro factors such as U.S.-China tariffs and Fed signals amplified equity volatility by four times. BlackRock ETF outflows included 4,873 BTC in April, while Fidelity added 1,375—polarization was evident. The 30-day new outputs dipped from 339K to 312K, rebounding on liquidity recovery.
GARCH models confirm negative shock persistence, indicating that fear clusters last longer than greed.
ETFs recover $114 million amid altcoin chase
MicroStrategy hoarded BTC amid chaos, while ETFs showed mixed results despite $114 million recoveries. Whales accumulated early in 2025 amid Gini stability, while retail investors chased altcoins via leverage. Volatility as alpha: BTC recorded an 18 percent year-to-date gain against altcoins’ extremes, maturing toward 54 percent annualized.
A Q4 rebound from the $70-85K range eyes $115-126K resistance, with the moving average down from $99K.
RSI oversold conditions (below 30) fueled bounces, while MACD bear crosses extended corrections. S2F divergence highlighted external dominance over scarcity. Key levels include support at $70-76K and resistance at $112-126K ATH.
SEC tokenized nods and MiCA compliance temper extremes. Climate scrutiny on PoW adds volatility layers.
